Some observations on the primary election
Pub Date: 7/1/2008
By Mark Staples
Montana tavern Assoc.
Government Affairs Counsel
I disagree with those who say the protracted Presidential primary fight between U.S. Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama hurt the Democrats.
Exhibit A for my argument would be Montana.
First, that battle, which lasted up to and through the primary election itself, kept the Montana Democratic Presidential primary a national item, while keeping nearly every other Montana race out of even the local news.
This in turn lessened the effect of Montana candidate war chests because local coverage was apparently well nigh impossible to get in the face of the Obama/Clinton onslaught.
For example, how about the near stealth campaigns of the five candidates for Montana Attorney General? I note that between them they spent well over a quarter-million dollars, but with the exception of ubiquitous roadside signs for Steve Bullock (who won on the Demo side) and copious mailers from Mike Wheat (who didn t, but ran well), I can t for the life of me see where any of them spent their cash.
I can only surmise that gasoline bills for state wide campaigns must be staggering these days, because the money they reported spending certainly didn t show up in media exposure.
Meanwhile, the seemingly endless Barack/Hillary scrap generated standing room-only crowds (and presumably beaucoup bucks) at usually moderately attended Montana county Democratic dinners. It is estimated that the Butte-Silver Bow dinner alone, featuring both Clinton and Obama in person, brought in excess of a half-million dollars for the party. That ll buy a ton of local media in the months to come for their candidates.
In recognition of this, Rep. Rehberg just gave $100,000 of his campaign funds to the state G.O.P. Game on.
And then there was, to my thinking, the most impactive Montana phenomena associated with the Obama vs. Clinton primary duke-out: a massive Republican crossover vote in the primary election. With U.S. Sen. McCain the unopposed Republican presidential nominee, U.S. Rep. Rehberg unopposed for the Republican nod for Congress, State Sen. Roy Brown a shoo-in for the Republican Gubernatorial nod, and the collective Republican U.S. Senate candidate slate without a thimble of a chance, most Montana Republicans I know crossed over to vote in the Democratic primary, or didn t vote at all.
Results? One, it made it look like the number of Democrats in Montana had doubled, but even the Democrats know that s a mirage (though don t look for them to publicly admit it).
More concretely, that fraction of Republican voters which stayed home to vote in the Republican primary was in large part made up of the most conservative strain, which proceeded to oust at least three prominent but moderate Republican legislative incumbents.
A leader of these conservatives later claimed in the press that these defeats send a clear signal ...that Republicans will toss out anyone not running (and voting in the legislature) according to core Republican principles, as the party platform defines them.
I personally believe that rhetoric gives the fairly small, Montana far right wing movement way too much credit. I believe the much clearer cause of the defeats of the few Republican moderate incumbents who lost, was the majority of mainstream moderate Republican voters who didn t stay home to attend to their own party s primary ballot, but rather allowed themselves to be drawn into the far better-contested Democratic primary races, or again, as I said, didn t vote at all.
Lessons to be learned for the parties and candidates in future primaries?
Foremost, to my way of thinking, is that hotly contested primaries with quality candidates are actually good for political parties, both in terms of raising money and in keeping their voters focused on their own party s ballot. In contrast, shoo-in races, or ones with no-name entrants, keep your party out of the news and your party voters uninterested.
Second, even if your party doesn t have well-contested races, party leadership should exhort their members to stay home on your own side of the primary ballot on election day lest their mainstream candidates (who I believe are much more likely to succeed in general elections) get knocked off by more doctrinaire candidates, who otherwise normally can t get much traction in Montana, where the vast majority of both Democrats and Republicans describe themselves as moderates as do most independents.
Finally, I will respectfully say to candidates again what I did to many in the primary: Don t wait so long to make your move!
I believe the old expert advice of keeping your money back until the last week or so, now constitutes political malpractice and obviously backfired on a number of candidates.
Yes, you should keep some cash in reserve for a final push, but you also need to use some to get out front while you can still stand out from the crowd. If you ve got endorsements lined up, for godsakes use them...early and often! Money begets attention, granted, but attention also begets money. So, make some timely noise, establish some momentum'; the money will follow.
General Dwight Eisenhower was once asked how he would most concisely characterize the efforts of losing sides in military in history. He answered, Their efforts were too late.
Far too many Montana candidates these days spend most of their time money-raising and not near enough of it campaigning. By the time they get publicly noticed as actually being in the race, it s basically over, and they can t find the media space or time to buy. Plain and simple, they re too late.
This is particularly true now that 40 percent of Montanans vote absentee ballots weeks ahead of each election (and thus before late entry ads are even launched).
It s ever more true in a year like this, where Obama/Clinton dominated the news for months, kept the McCain campaign on the sidelines over that same period, and dwarfed coverage of local and state races, all, at least thus far, to the financial and media advantage of despite their claims to the contrary the Democrats.
Source: The Montana Tavern Times, July, 2008, published monthly by Continental Communications, 125 W. Granite St., Suite 102, Butte, MT 59701.