Nov. D.C. Update - Lautenberg trying back door on interlock mandate
Pub Date: 11/1/2005
By Berman and Co.
Lautenberg Seeks New Vehicle for Mandate
After his stinging defeat on the highway bill, Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) has indicated that he will try to resurrect his drunk driving mandate as an amendment to pending appropriations legislation.
The legislation, HR 3058, contains appropriations for the Departments of Transportation, Treasury, Judiciary and Housing and Urban Development. The legislation cleared the House this summer and the full Senate is set to consider it in the middle of October.
Once the legislation clears the Senate, conferees from each chamber will hammer out the final language. We have begun to reach out to appropriations members in each chamber, educating them on the failings of the Lautenberg mandate as well as reminding them that the appropriations process should not be used to decide policy. We will closely monitor the situation as it develops.
Schwarzenegger Vetoes Minimum Wage Bill
Yesterday, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed a proposal to raise California's minimum wage. The proposal, AB 48, would have increased the wage to $7.75 in two steps and indexed the wage annually to reflect changes in the consumer price index. This issue will likely come up again as an initiative effort.
Earlier this year, three petitions to increase the minimum wage were in circulation. These petitions died before the Aug. 15 submission deadline, eliminating the opportunity to appear on the ballot in November 2005. The high voter turnout expected with the gubernatorial and congressional elections in 2006 will provide a prime opportunity for labor activists to readdress the wage issue with voters.
This marks the fifth time a governor has vetoed a state minimum wage hike in the past two years. In 2005, Governors Ehrlich (MD), Carcieri (RI) and Schwarzenegger all vetoed wage hikes. This is the second wage veto for Schwarzenegger. Last year, both he and Governor Pataki (NY) vetoed wage proposals. The track record shows that political officials can often respond to strong arguments against popular wage hikes.
Chicago Considers Citywide Smoking Ban
The Chicago City Council's health committee will move forward with legislation to ban smoking in all indoor establishments and within 25 feet of a building entrance. With 11 of the 14 committee votes in favor of the smoking ban, committee chairman Ed Smith claims he has enough support to advance this proposal. If passed, this proposal would take effect April 1, 2006.
Although the smoking question has come before several legislatures this year, many have failed to act on it. In response, smoking activists are taking their campaign directly to the voters.
As we mentioned in an earlier update, a ballot initiative, I-901, has been approved for the November 2005 election in Washington State. Support for this initiative would prohibit smoking in and near bars and restaurants. Should this proposal pass in Washington, smoking activists may be expected to adopt similar tactics in other states and localities.
Parties Step-up Recruiting for 2006 Elections
With a key election year on the horizon, Republicans and Democrats have begun recruiting candidates for heavily contested seats in the House and Senate.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 seats in the Senate are up for election in 2006. However, additional Senates seats may come up with any last minute retirement announcements.
In an effort to regain control of the House, Democrats have targeted 40 GOP-held seats. With a 15-seat gain necessary to capture the majority in the House, the Democrats are looking to increase their number of viable challenges to 50 by the beginning of 2006.
Although this strategy is nothing new, in years past open and vulnerable seats have rarely provided enough targets to give Democrats a head start. However, these early numbers are significantly higher than in recent House elections.
Similarly, the Republicans are taking aim at several Democratic incumbent seats, with greater attention to the House. These include several seats held by minority leadership.
Below are the projected close 2006 Senate and House races according to an analysis by The Cook Political Report.
2006 Senate elections in ABL States
(State, Incumbent, Odds)
Florida, Bill Nelson (D), Lean Democrat
Maryland, OPEN SEAT, Lean Democrat
Minnesota, OPEN SEAT, Toss Up
New Jersey, John Corzine (D), Lean Democrat (seat open if Corzine wins gubernatorial election in '05)
Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum (R), Toss Up
Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee (R), Toss Up
2006 House elections in ABL States
(District, Incumbent, Odds)
CO-03, John Salazar (D), Lean Democrat
CO-04, Marilyn Musgrave (R), Lean Republican
CO-07, OPEN SEAT, Toss Up
CT-02, Robert Simmons (R), Lean Republican
CT-04, Christopher Shays (R), Lean Republican
FL-22 Clay Shaw (R) Lean Republican
GA-03, Jim Marshall (D), Toss Up
GA-12, John Barrow, Lean Democrat
IL-08, Melissa Bean (D), Lean Democrat
IN-08, John Hostettler (R), Lean Republican
IN-09, Mike Sodrel (R), Lean Republican
MN-06, OPEN SEAT, Lean Republican
NV-03, Jon Porter (R), Lean Republican
OH-06, OPEN SEAT, Toss Up
PA-06, Jim Gerlach (R), Toss Up
PA-08, Mike Fitzpatrick (R), Lean Republican
SD-AL, Stephanie Herseth (D), Lean Democrat
TX-17, Chet Edwards (D), Lean Democrat
TX-22, Tom Delay (R), Lean Republican
Labor Rallies Early Support for 2006 Ballot Initiatives
With most state legislatures adjourned for the year, many labor and anti-smoking activists have turned their attention to potential ballot initiatives for 2006 elections.
While only a few petitions are currently in circulation, we believe that early indicators (failed legislative proposals addressing the minimum wage and smoking and the mobilization of labor groups) suggest potential ballot initiatives that could materialize in the coming months.
Listed are the states that may face questions on wage or smoking issues in 2006. These are not the only states where threats could emerge, but where activity has already started.
In addition to these proposals, we will closely monitor states that allow initiatives and that are expected to feature competitive US senatorial or gubernatorial races. Because turnout is lower in non-presidential election years, initiatives have a greater impact on turnout. It is likely that activists will use initiative-allied candidates to rally support on these issues.
Minimum Wage
Arizona: A petition is already in circulation that would put a minimum wage hike to a public vote. The proposal would increase the minimum wage to $6.75 an hour and index the wage annually to inflation. The cash wage for tipped employees would also increase to $3.13 on July 1, 2007'; $4.03 on July 1, 2008 and thereafter indexed to inflation.
This proposal requires 183,000 signatures to appear on the ballot. The petition has until July 2006 to accumulate the required number of signatures.
California: See above.
Montana: While there is no petition in circulation, a continuous debate over the minimum wage issue earlier this year has primed support for a ballot initiative.
As you may know, an evenly divided House rejected a proposal to increase the minimum wage to $5.25 an hour despite House Democrats using all available resources to pass the bill. After the bill failed with a tie vote, the sponsor of this legislation publicly stated that he would seek a ballot initiative.
We expect a competitive U.S. Senate race in 2006, which raises the likelihood of a ballot initiative. (A wage initiative would be used to drive people to the polls).
Nevada: In 2004, the electorate accepted a proposal to increase the minimum wage. Voters have to weigh in on the proposal once more in 2006 in order for it to be finalized. This proposal would increase the minimum wage to $6.15 an hour unless an employer provides health care. Thus far, a competing initiative has not been introduced to challenge this proposal.
Ohio: While no petition is currently in circulation, labor groups have targeted this state for a possible initiative. Early indicators show a push for a $7.15 an hour minimum wage indexed to inflation. The deadline for a statutory initiative is August 2006. The petition needs 300,000 signatures to be on the ballot.
Smoking Bans
Ohio: Although there are no petitions in circulation, activists in favor of a statewide smoking ban have discussed placing the question on the 2006 ballot. Washington State will vote on a smoking ban this November. Based on the results of this election, activists may consider supporting similar initiatives for the 2006 election.
DC Update sidebar
Nov. ABLL
The Growing Threat of Ignition interlock Campaigns...
In upcoming issues of the Leader, we'll illustrate how the anti-alcohol community will use the technology of ignition interlock devices in their quest to eliminate any drinking before driving.
· At the recent Ignition interlock Symposium, a Saab representative stated that they are ready to begin field trials of the Alcokey, a breathalyzer car key, in 2006. When asked about parent company General Motors opinion, the representative assured the audience GM "fully supports" the project and will be "watching closely."
· A representative from Ford-owned Volvo also spoke at the symposium, telling of Volvo's Multilock, which combines an alcohol breathalyzer, a seatbelt interlock, and a speed limiting feature. Volvo plans, he said, to "market this as an accessory in a couple of years."
· The Swedish government is drafting legislation to require universal ignition interlocks by 2012, and a representative from Finland said they would likely follow Sweden's lead. This lends troubling credibility to the concept of universal ignition interlocks.
· Also at the Symposium was a spokesman for the I-Key, a breathalyzer that fits over any car key. In 2006, a global alliance will begin marketing the I-Key specifically to responsible adults. "The product is designed for ordinary people conscientious enough to undergo self-test and to control their drinking and driving habit," a spokesman said. The company does, of course, advise that the BAC be set below the legal limit.
· December 2005 is the estimated date for the mass production of a steering wheel cover that "senses" alcohol levels through contact. Already approved by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the company is hoping to encourage its widespread use.
· interlock company (and MADD contributor) Smart Start has big plans for 2006, including "expanding into international markets and additional states in the U.S." Smart Start will also be "introducing our next generation of ignition interlock products. This includes a totally new interlock, which will have plug and play capabilities. These expanded capabilities allow for easy expansion" of interlock use.
Source: ABL Leader, November, 2005, published monthly by Continental Communications, 125 W. Granite St., Suite 102, Butte, MT 59701.